Showing posts with label long-term deals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label long-term deals. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Steven Stamkos and the End of the Mega Deal
Steven Stamkos is off the market. No need to continually refresh HockeyBuzz to find out the latest outlandish fable concerning who is soon to trade for the talented pivot.
Today the Lightning signed Stamkos to a five-year deal worth $37.5 million, which works out to an average annual cap hit of $7.5 million. Some might suggest he left some money on the table, but it’s important to remember that he was an RFA and couldn’t truly maximize his value as if he was a UFA.
This signing marks the first major RFA to re-sign with his club, leaving Drew Doughty, Shea Weber, Zach Parise, and Luke Schenn as the most talented players currently without a deal. It also marks an end to the various trade rumours and offer sheet speculation that happens when there is little to discuss during the summer.
Stamkos wasn't presented with an offer sheet because the reality was that it was a futile venture. The Lightning possessed enough cap space to match any offer another club could have imagined extending to Stamkos. And any notion of a trade was equally ridiculous because there are no teams that would possibly consider moving a 21-year-old franchise player who has already scored 119 goals in his first three seasons. Even if the signing means the Lightning spend a disproportionate amount of money on their forwards it doesn’t matter, you find a way to shed salary elsewhere. I understand it made for a good story, but let’s be realistic, you can probably count on one hand the players you would actually trade Stamkos for.
What’s really interesting about the Stamkos signing is what it means going forward.
Today the Lightning signed Stamkos to a five-year deal worth $37.5 million, which works out to an average annual cap hit of $7.5 million. Some might suggest he left some money on the table, but it’s important to remember that he was an RFA and couldn’t truly maximize his value as if he was a UFA.
This signing marks the first major RFA to re-sign with his club, leaving Drew Doughty, Shea Weber, Zach Parise, and Luke Schenn as the most talented players currently without a deal. It also marks an end to the various trade rumours and offer sheet speculation that happens when there is little to discuss during the summer.
Stamkos wasn't presented with an offer sheet because the reality was that it was a futile venture. The Lightning possessed enough cap space to match any offer another club could have imagined extending to Stamkos. And any notion of a trade was equally ridiculous because there are no teams that would possibly consider moving a 21-year-old franchise player who has already scored 119 goals in his first three seasons. Even if the signing means the Lightning spend a disproportionate amount of money on their forwards it doesn’t matter, you find a way to shed salary elsewhere. I understand it made for a good story, but let’s be realistic, you can probably count on one hand the players you would actually trade Stamkos for.
What’s really interesting about the Stamkos signing is what it means going forward.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Rick DiPietro: A Case Study
Rick DiPietro, initially slated for a mid-December return, had a set-back in his rehab from knee injury. The Islanders are seeking additional medical opinions on their young netminder who left an AHL game last Friday with leg stiffness. It was only his second game of a conditioning assignment. He hasn’t played in the NHL since last January. Since signing a 15-year, $67.5 million contract before the start of the 2006-2007 season DiPietro has played a total of 130 games. However, he has only played five since last season. This is only one of the major reasons teams should be wary of signing their players to such long-term deals.
The DiPietro deal was perplexing on multiple levels. First, he really only had one good year prior to the contract extension. In the year before the lockout he won 23 games with a 2.36 GAA and .911 save percentage. He even recorded 5 shutouts. After sitting out the lockout, DiPietro returned with mediocre numbers in 2005-2006 and was then rewarded with his major deal. I can’t fault the Isles for re-signing their franchise goalie, but the term is ridiculous. How can you give a 15-year deal to a young player you don’t really know much about. It wasn’t like he was consistently producing since draft day. The second reason this deal was perplexing is because the Islanders already locked up a 28 year-old Alexei Yashin for 10 years and $87.5 million in 2001. Didn’t they learn after Yashin’s production declined precipitously to the point where the Isles bought him out in March 2007? In fact, the Isles will be paying for Yashin until the 2015.
The Islanders case study should be a warning to the rest of the league. Long-term deals are very risky. I guess the real effects of these long-term contracts won’t be realized until the next decade when many of today’s stars begin to age. Over the past years we’ve seen long-term deals given to Marian Hossa (12 years, $62.8 million), Duncan Keith (13 years, $72 million), Henrik Zetterberg (12 year, $73 million), Johan Franzen (11 years, $43.5 million), Mike Richards (12 years, $69 million), Vincent Lecavalier (11 years, $85 million), Roberto Luongo (12 years, $64 million), and Alexander Ovechkin (13 years, $124 million). This does not even include players like Chris Pronger who signed long-term deals in their mid-30s that will last until their early 40s.
Each of these deals has varying degrees of risk to them. The Mike Richards deal is probably the safest considering the reasonable cap hit and the contract will conclude before he is 35. Both the Hossa and Lecavalier deals are probably the riskiest considering they were both signed close to 30 years old and are signed until their early 40s. These deals are risky because there is no way that near the end of these deals, when they are mid-to-late 30s, these players can match their production in the 20s.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Cap Crunch
The Chicago Blackhawks announced a trio of signings today and, in the process, solidified their competitiveness for the foreseeable future. The Hawks signed Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews to identical 5-year deals worth $6.3 million per season, while signing Duncan Keith to a monster 13-year deal worth $5.5 million per season. While signing these three players was absolutely essential for the Hawks, the deals do come with some negative consequences.
The first negative is the Hawks' dwindling cap space. This is a product of some questionable deals made by Dale Tallon a few years ago. The major problem is Brian Campbell and his salary of $7+ million per year. Oh, there’s still six years left after this season. Campbell isn’t playing horribly. He has 14 points and is plus-6, although he only has one goal. However, if you’re paying a player over $7 million a season you’d like more production than that. The second problem is Christobal Huet, who is making over $5.5 million for the next two seasons. His production is acceptable and solid goaltending doesn’t come cheap, but this isn’t the best contract. The Hawks cap issue is also compounded by the Marian Hossa signing. Hossa is an awesome talent, but at the time I thought that signing would create trouble for the Hawks both in the immediate future (now) and in the long term (since Hossa is signed for 12 years—until he is 42). These signings created the cap problems the Hawks now face.
There are rumours that the team president, John McDonough, pushed these free agent signings because he didn’t believe the young Hawks were ready to take the next step without help. The media savvy McDonough also desired to make a large splash in the Chicago sports market. It may have been prudent to wait, since the young Hawks such as Toews, Kane, Keith, Cam Barker, Brent Seabrook, Kris Versteeg, Dustin Byfuglien and Dave Bolland have progressed so rapidly. Although Chicago was the laughingstock of the league for over a decade, so I can’t entirely fault the management for wanting to create a winner at the first opportunity. And if the Hawks are able to win the Stanley Cup this year then the moves will be successful. However, if the Hawks are unable to achieve the Stanley Cup they will not have the same team to make another deep run next spring.
The first negative is the Hawks' dwindling cap space. This is a product of some questionable deals made by Dale Tallon a few years ago. The major problem is Brian Campbell and his salary of $7+ million per year. Oh, there’s still six years left after this season. Campbell isn’t playing horribly. He has 14 points and is plus-6, although he only has one goal. However, if you’re paying a player over $7 million a season you’d like more production than that. The second problem is Christobal Huet, who is making over $5.5 million for the next two seasons. His production is acceptable and solid goaltending doesn’t come cheap, but this isn’t the best contract. The Hawks cap issue is also compounded by the Marian Hossa signing. Hossa is an awesome talent, but at the time I thought that signing would create trouble for the Hawks both in the immediate future (now) and in the long term (since Hossa is signed for 12 years—until he is 42). These signings created the cap problems the Hawks now face.
There are rumours that the team president, John McDonough, pushed these free agent signings because he didn’t believe the young Hawks were ready to take the next step without help. The media savvy McDonough also desired to make a large splash in the Chicago sports market. It may have been prudent to wait, since the young Hawks such as Toews, Kane, Keith, Cam Barker, Brent Seabrook, Kris Versteeg, Dustin Byfuglien and Dave Bolland have progressed so rapidly. Although Chicago was the laughingstock of the league for over a decade, so I can’t entirely fault the management for wanting to create a winner at the first opportunity. And if the Hawks are able to win the Stanley Cup this year then the moves will be successful. However, if the Hawks are unable to achieve the Stanley Cup they will not have the same team to make another deep run next spring.
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