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Showing posts with label rebuilding. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rebuilding. Show all posts

Monday, October 29, 2012

A Rebuild Off the Rails

Steve Sullivan Leafs
Brian Burke's five-year rebuild that wasn't supposed to take five years is taking longer than expected.

The last time the Toronto Maple Leafs rebuilt, it was quick and almost painless. The team missed the playoffs only twice—in 1997 and 1998—but would become a post-season mainstay for the next six years.

But that mid-90s rebuild did not happen in one fell swoop—the three biggest trades actually occurred over a five-year period—and could be better characterized as a slow core replacement, rather than a fire-sale.

After bowing out of back-to-back conference finals, the Leafs began a process of turning their three most important players—Doug Gilmour, Wendel Clark, and Felix Potvin—into what should have been a strong group to build around in the future.

In Wendel Clark's case the return was overwhelming, but the players that came back in other trades were bungled away.

The Leafs still became a perennial contender in the late-90s and early-2000s, largely thanks to successful plunges into free agency, but poor asset management and pure, dumb luck ruined the rest of what should have been an overwhelmingly successful rebuild.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Season of Change: Is the Old Guard Done?

roberto luongo cory schneider
The old superpowers of the NHL crumbled in the first round of the playoffs and the league is undergoing a changing of the guard. Gone are the Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Chicago Blackhawks, three of the past four Stanley Cup winners. Presidents' Trophy winners like the Vancouver Canucks and San Jose Sharks have joined them in searching for early tee off times. In their place, teams green to the upper echelon of the NHL like the Phoenix Coyotes and Nashville Predators.

This off-season represents an important crossroads for many of the former elite squads. Aging rosters are beginning to show cracks, especially when compared to the younger and hungrier rosters that bounced them. It isn't full-time panic mode for any of the teams, but moves must be made for each to remain competitive going forward.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

The Ottawa Senators: Back from the Dead

Rebuilding is easy. Just look at St. Louis and Ottawa. Bad one year, amazing the next. It works that simply, so why is it taking forever in Toronto.

Those are the two most oft-cited examples of how a rebuild can happen overnight. Unfortunately, neither of those rebuilds happened overnight.

St. Louis was awful the first season after the lockout, finishing last in the Western Conference. The team took a step forward in 2006-07, finishing 10th in the West, although that progress was short-lived as the 2007-08 Blues finished second-last in the West. The Blues surprised in 2008-09, grabbing the No. 6 seed, but lost in the first round to Vancouver. Instead of linearly progressing in the next two seasons, the Blues actually finished with less points in each successive season.

Now after six seasons, five of which were spent outside of the playoffs, and two of which ended in lottery picks, the Blues are the class of the NHL. That hardly resembles a rebuild overnight.

In Ottawa's case, there has hardly been any rebuild at all. The team that is currently fighting for the Northeast Division title is largely the same team that finished in a lottery position last year. It's not even because the spirit of Mike Green took over Erik Karlsson's body. Don't believe me? Read today's post at The Good Point.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

The Sedins: A Victory for Patience

sedins vancouver burke
The Leafs are mired in a classic Toronto death spiral, seemingly caused by a combination of the pressure from the impending trade deadline and being involved in the slightest of playoff races. Not exactly heavy stuff.

The team once held the 7th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but are 1-7-1 in the last nine games dropping them to 10th, three points out of the final playoff spot. You read that right, the Leafs have three points in the last nine games and are still in the thick of a playoff race. The Eastern Conference is a joke.

Unsurprisingly, the late season swoon has brought Leafs Nation to the edge, ready to jump. Solutions range from the mildly plausible (fire Ron Wilson), to the downright insane (TRADE EVERYBODY, BLOW IT UP, AND BURN THIS CITY DOWN).

Obviously, it is a concern that the Leafs are doing terribly under minimal pressure, which also leads to the conclusion that the late-season runs of previous years were a product of zero expectations and no pressure.

Yet it's important to remember that the Leafs are one of the youngest teams in the league and rebuilding takes time. I'm not trying to make excuses for a truly awful February—there obviously are major problems that need correcting—but just because young players are not paying dividends now, does not mean they will fail to develop into a strong core moving forward.

Fans are ready to make almost any trade, so long as the upgrade is immediate, although not necessarily long-term. James Reimer has lost his God-like status in Toronto, and the only other player under the bus as much as him is Luke Schenn. Players in the AHL aren't immune to the hyper-reactivity either. No trade proposal is complete without the names Nazem Kadri or Joe Colborne. Apparently, the kids are not alright.

Everybody wanted a rebuild, but now nobody wants to go through the growing pains.

As hard as it might be for a passionate fan base that hasn't made the playoffs in eight years, patience is still required.

The Sedins are the most glaring example of why teams need to be patient with their young players.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

How to Build a Contender: A Case Study

One seventh-round pick was used in the making of this photo.
A few weeks ago I wrote an article comparing the rebuilding efforts in Edmonton and Toronto, with the basis being that there are many ways to build a team, and the traditional tank hard and draft high method isn't always a guarantee for success.

I've thought a lot about how teams go about building a contender, mainly because the Maple Leafs are so routinely whipped for Brian Burke's current rebuild, and that led me to examine the league's top two teams, the New York Rangers and the Detroit Red Wings.

The last time either team had a lottery pick was in 1999, which is the year New York selected Pavel Brendl fourth overall. You have to go all the way back to 1990 for the last time the Red Wings selected in the top-5; that year they took Keith Primeau third overall.

Clearly, neither team has undergone the prototypical rebuilding method, which most fans view as the only true way to create a legitimate Stanley Cup threat.

Today's article at The Good Point looks at just how the Rangers and Red Wings came to sit at the top of the standings.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Point/Counterpoint: Trading the Farm for Nash

rick nash moustache
Rick Nash is on the block. After a dismal season in Columbus it appears as if the franchise winger is available at the right price, for the right team.

Did you hear that? RICK NASH! First overall pick. Olympian. Maurice Richard winner. Prisoner of Columbus. That Rick Nash.

On Monday, RDS reported Nash was on the market, and on Tuesday the Columbus Dispatch confirmed that the Blue Jackets were willing to listen to offers for the face of the franchise.

In less than a week Nash went from untouchable to available. Things change quickly in the NHL.

It's amazing that Columbus would let GM Scott Howson deal the most important player in the history of the Blue Jackets, but you don't have a perennial cellar dweller by doing things the right way. Regardless, Nash is a premier talent and teams will be lining up for his services.

However, Nash has a no-movement clause, and TSN reports that he has likely given a very small list of teams that he would willingly play for. That means even if every team in the league sent a trade proposal to Howson, he immediately must disregard almost all of them, or at the very least give a quick glance and cry over potential missed opportunities.

From now until the deadline, all you're going to read or hear about is Rick Nash. The prevailing thought is that any team would be crazy not to go all in on Nash. Unfortunately, it's not quite so simple. Nash would be a great fit for some teams, but not others. I'm not convinced the Maple Leafs are the former.

To figure it all out I debated myself in a segment I like to call "Point/Counterpoint".

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Rebuilding the Rebuild

After taking a couple months hiatus, I am back writing for The Good Point. I should have a piece out every other Thursday.

Today I wrote about the sorry state of the Columbus Blue Jackets. The vultures are certainly circling as the team rots in last place, and plenty of Leafs fans have turned their dreams of Bobby Ryan and Ryan Getzlaf into dreams of Jeff Carter and Rick Nash.

According to Sportsnet reporter John Shannon, close friends of Nash are saying the star winger is willing to waive his no-trade clause, but won't outright ask for a trade. Whether true or not, it has certainly fueled the speculation that Nash is on his way out of Columbus.

Elliotte Friedman of CBC made an excellent point in his 30-thoughts column this week, saying that with the Blue Jackets hosting the All-Star game next season, how can they trade Nash beforehand? Who is going to get the home fans excited?

In my article for The Good Point I'm actually defending the Blue Jackets and saying that a rebuild now might be one of the worst moves the franchise can make. Seeing how Columbus is pretty much the antithesis to a model expansion franchise they probably won't heed my advice.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Toronto and Edmonton: A Tale of Two Rebuilds

stuart percy leafs brian burke
Burke explaining that the Leafs do, in fact, occasionally draft in the first round.
When Brian Burke traded two first- and one second-round pick for Phil Kessel, the prevailing thought was that Burke was foolish; you don't rebuild a team by trading away your high draft picks.

Burke boldly declared he was too impatient for a traditional rebuild and that under his watch the Leafs would undergo a radical on-the-fly rebuild. The Leafs weren't going to tank year in, year out, slowly building a team with the best young prospects available each June.

People were outwardly skeptical or the brash GM.

The Leafs began their rebuild shortly before Burke was named GM in 2008, as Cliff Fletcher took over for the deposed John Ferguson Jr. Fletcher acquired a few mid to late draft picks at the deadline and then traded up in the draft to take Luke Schenn, before fleecing the Canadiens for Mikhail Grabovski.

But aside from those two players, plus Tomas Kaberle and Nik Antropov, Burke was left with a roster deprived of nearly all talent, and saddled with seemingly unmovable contracts like Jason Blake's, which still had the next three seasons and $12 million on it.

At the same time, the Edmonton Oilers were about to embark on their own rebuild after finishing the 2008-09 season in 11th place in the Western Conference.

Over the next three years the two teams took different strategies to bring respectability back to their once proud franchises. The Oilers ended up adopting the more traditional tank hard and draft high method, while the Leafs managed to hold onto only one of their own first round picks.

Critics of Brian Burke and the Leafs pointed to Edmonton, proclaiming that the Oilers, on account of their proper rebuild, would become a better team sooner than the Leafs. Eventually, the armchair GMs said, the Leafs too would have to follow Edmonton as Burke's method was doomed to failure.

Well, three years have passed, and it is Toronto who has taken the first major step forward, sitting 7th in the Eastern Conference. In comparison, the Oilers once again sit in their customary lottery position, and can only console themselves by fact that drafting high will pay off eventually... or so they hope.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Patience is a Virtue

phil kessel joffrey lupul bffs
After 33 games, the Leafs are who we thought they were. They are in a dog fight for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, sitting tied with Ottawa (Ottawa!) for 7th place with 36 points. That puts them one point behind New Jersey for 6th, but only one point ahead of Washington, Buffalo, and Winnipeg. It’s a log jam that will likely continue for the rest of the season.

Toronto’s fast start fooled fans into thinking the rebuild was a little ahead of schedule, but a mediocre November (7-6-1) and an awful start to December (2-4-2) has dropped the Leafs from their once lofty perch among the Eastern Conference élite.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Rebuilding the City of Champions

The Oilers are a team on the rise. They have Taylor Hall – who looks deadly, but sort of skates like he’s slack-jawed – and Captain Clutch, Jordan Eberle, which could become a pretty fearsome 1-2 punch in the near future. They also could have the ‘Nuge, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but he’s about as heavy as a fart in a strong wind at this point, so he might not be making the team this season.

If the Oilers can only get some goaltending maybe they can make their big first step towards respectability this season. But if for some reason they have to actually play Nikolai Khabibulin more than 30 games this season they are headed straight for another 1st overall pick. Khabs is terrible. He can’t stop anything. It's amazing he stopped his car during that police check...

Check out The Good Point for my latest article looking at what's in store for the Oilers this season and beyond.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Fond Farewell to a Friend

tomas kaberle leafs trade
It didn’t really hit me that Tomas Kaberle was actually gone until Saturday night when it was evident the Leafs’ blueline was missing a certain slick, steady presence.

It was weird watching a Leafs power-play that didn’t employ Kaberle as the quarterback, feeding seemless passes to anxiously awaiting teammates. It’s crazy to think that Brett Ledba, the man Leafs Nation has relentlessly bashed all year, is now the commander of the PP. Gulp.

But I’m not complaining. This was a trade that was essential for the Leafs moving forward. Kaberle was Burke’s one true trade chip that many other teams coveted and he wouldn't be back with the club next season. If the Leafs went through another Mats Sundin situation it would make this re-build/re-tool even more arduous than it already is. Plus, it was about time.

It seems like the Leafs tried to trade Kaberle since the very moment he re-signed with the club in 2006 (okay, not exactly, but it felt that way), yet they could never manage to actually pull off the deal. Sifting through endless Kaberle rumours every year was wearing down on everybody – including Tomas. Eventually, even the consummate Leaf was ready to move on despite an unhealthy desire to stay amidst the misery.

Finally, Burke was able to not only trade Kaberle, but maximize his value as well, getting the Leafs a nice return not many expected. This is even more impressive considering the Leafs were really only dealing with one team (technically).

This isn’t to say the Bruins were totally fleeced in this trade. Their team has needed Kaberle for a long time and his acquisition firmly places them among the elite in the Eastern Conference and the NHL. Plus, trading their own first-round pick wasn’t damaging considering scouts regard this as a weak draft class (look at the amount of first-round picks being traded) and they already own the Leafs’ first-round pick which will be a much higher selection. And even though they traded Joe Colborne, their second highest prospect next to Tyler Seguin, they are already flushed with talent at centre and have one of the deeper prospect systems in the league.

Over the past two weeks Burke has solidified the Leafs’ rebuilding effort by adding two good prospects formerly taken in the first round in 2008, while adding two first-round picks, a conditional second-round pick, and a third-round selection. Of course the first-round picks will be near the end of the first-round, but it’s a start for a franchise with a history of having no first-round picks. These also give Burke the flexibility to make other deals if he so chooses. And this is the Leafs we're talking about here, we shouldn't get comfortable with those draft picks.

But the Leafs and Bruins completed the trade on Friday and there has been ample time to thoroughly analyze it. What I really wanted to do is to thank Tomas Kaberle for his years of service to the Toronto Maple Leafs and… ummm… apologize for being a part of the angry mob that tried to run him out of town two years running.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Mike Fisher: Fact and Fiction

mike fisher carrie underwood purse holder
Brian Burke kicked off the NHL trade frenzy early this year much like he did last season. After the Francois Beauchemin trade was announced there were two more deals.

First, the Hawks traded Jake Skille, Hugh Jessiman, and David Pacan for Michael Frolik and Alexander Salak. I don’t want to spend too much time on this deal, but at first blush this is a dumb trade for Florida. It’s never a smart idea to give up on a 22-year-old who already has two 20-goal seasons in his first two years in the league.

The second deal brought much more attention – and not just from hockey fans. The Ottawa Senators traded fan favourite Mike Fisher to the Nashville Predators for a first round pick and a conditional pick which could be as high as a second rounder if the Predators win two or more playoff series. The headline in Nashville’s Tennessean newspaper announced that the Preds acquired “Carrie Underwood’s Husband”. Whatever you have to do to bring the fans to the rink I guess.

Senators fans are probably sad to see one of their favourites leave, but they’re getting a first round pick for a 30-year-old player who has only once topped 50 points and is in the midst of his worst statistical season. Be happy because he’s overpaid too. Sure he'll bring a ton of intangibles to the Predators who are suddenly desperate for a centre after a rash of injuries, but first round picks are a valuable thing (don’t tell Burke) and to get one for Fisher is amazing.

Predators general manager David Poile made a lot of statements about Fisher, some of which were pure fiction. Note: Poile did not make all of these statements, but I imagine those who love Fisher have at some point, so I added them.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Do the Sharks Need to Re-build?

evgeni nabokov sharks
The San Jose Sharks once again failed to make it to the Stanley Cup Final after being a top-seed in the Western Conference. They didn’t lose in horrific fashion, but the result will leave the Sharks with the same empty feeling that they have every year.

It's convenient to label this loss to the Blackhawks as another Sharks’ collapse, especially since they were swept 4-0, but that would be disingenuous. The Sharks may have lost four straight to the Hawks, but every game was close and more than a few could have gone the other way. And this wasn’t some underdog team that upset the Sharks - it was the most complete team in the entire league.

While there is no shame in losing in the Conference Final to a team like the Chicago Blackhawks, this is definitely a bitter moment for the Sharks and their fans, especially since it was all over so quickly.

Now the Sharks head into a summer where they face many big decisions. This team doesn’t need to be blown apart, but major changes certainly need to happen. This is a good team, but one who has failed to win a Stanley Cup despite being pegged by analysts as heavy favourites for a number of years. It may be time for Doug Wilson to realize that the current core of the team just isn’t good enough to win the Stanley Cup.

Monday, January 11, 2010

MLSGreed

brian burke mlse greedy
When you don’t start work until noon you get to enjoy a leisurely morning. Sleeping in on Monday is great. It also gives me a chance to actually read the newspaper, rather than blaze through breakfast while casually skimming boxscores. So, with my excess time today I actually read some of the newspaper. Well, the sports section because proroguing parliament doesn’t hold my interest like a good Leafs talk does (total philistine here). Two articles caught my attention and both primarily concerned MLSE’s greed and its consequences.

In the comments section of both articles (because I read the newspaper online for this specific reason) there were copious amounts of fans complaining about the Leafs lack of success and how they shouldn’t pay to see a shitty product on the ice. The solution that many fans suggest is boycotting the team. They point to the perception that MLSE is only concerned with making money. I agree that MLSE is gluttonous in their quest for money, but I no longer think this is at the expense of the Leafs.
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